Boone County Growth Projections

Watchdog Indiana Home Page Watchdog Lebanon Home Page

When projecting future population growth for Boone County and its city and towns, it is interesting to note the actual population growths in the following table.

Boone County Population Data
(compiled August 16, 2003)

Population Totals
Location	1900	1910	1920	1930	1940	1950	1960	1970	1980	1990	1992	1995	2000	2001	2002
Advance		416	417	358	365	413	463	561	559	520			562	553	558
Jamestown	640	690	628	552	583	718	827	938	924	764			886	875	941
Lebanon	4,465	5,474	6,257	6,445	6,529	7,631	9,523	9,766	11,456	12,059			14,222	14,059	14,231
Thorntown	1,511	1,508	1,432	1,325	1,226	1,380	1,486	1,399	1,468	1,506			1,562	1,532	1,543
Ulen				74	99	83	130	138	193	50			123	121	122
Whitestown						550	613	569	497	476			471	544	543
Zionsville	765	840	957	1,131	1,314	1,536	1,822	1,857	3,948	5,281			8,775	9,767	10,062
all other	18,940	15,745	13,884	12,405	11,965	11,682	12,679	15,642	17,401	17,491			19,506	20,163	20,835
Total	26,321	24,673	23,575	22,290	22,081	23,993	27,543	30,870	36,446	38,147	39,601	41,951	46,107	47,061	48,277

2000 Population by Age
Category	No.	%
0 to 4	3,354	7.3%	(Preschool)
5 to 17	9,701	21.0%	(School Age)
18 to 64	27,602	59.9%	(Adult)
65 plus	5,450	11.8%	(Older)

Source: Indiana Business Research Center (IN Univ. - Kelley School of Business) STATS Indiana web pages
1. http://www.stats.indiana.edu/profiles/pr18011.html for 1900 through 1990 and 2000 census populations.
2. http://www.stats.indiana.edu/population/PopTotals/intercensal_90s.html for 1992-99 pop. est. (on July 1).
3. http://www.stats.indiana.edu/population/sub_cnty_estimates/2002/place_estimates2002.html for 2001 and 2002 population estimates (as of July 1).

One "standard source" of current estimates for future Boone County populations is the STATS Indiana web page at http://www.stats.indiana.edu/pop_proj/ compiled by the Indiana Business Research Center (Indiana University - Kelley School of Business). These STATS projections, issued July 2003, are strictly demographic in nature making use of fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. Future changes in local land usage and zoning regulation are not accounted for. No information on state or local economic development initiatives are incorporated in the STATS projections.

Recent STATS estimates of future Boone County population growth have been too low. For example, it is enlightening to compare the February 1999 STATS projections at http://www.iupui.edu/it/ibrc/Population/Projections/figure4.html to the actual 2000, 2001, and 2002 Boone County populations. This comparison listed next shows the actual 2002 population was not projected by STATS until 2008.

ACTUAL vs. February 1999 STATS
2000: ACTUAL-46,107; STATS-45,300
2001: ACTUAL-47,061; STATS-?
2002: ACTUAL-48,277; STATS-?
2005: STATS-47,491
2010: STATS-48,814
2015: STATS-49,913
2020: STATS-50,906

Single Family Building Permit data in Boone County can be used to more accurately project future populations in Boone County, the city of Lebanon, and the towns of Zionsville and Whitestown. This data is included in the following table.

Boone County Single Family Building Permits

(compiled August 16, 2003)

Location

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Lebanon

Whitestown

45*

Zionsville

112

124

all other

245

277

337

305

Total

186

211

272

270

382

310

343

433

461

547

443

433

426

466

471

459

462

475

500

*2003 Whitestown single family building permits approved as of June 2, 2003.

1990-2001 Source: Drew Klacik, Indiana University Center for Urban Policy and the Environ. (04/29/03).

1997-2002 Lebanon Source: Kristi Culley, Building Inspector Secretary (06/04/03).

1997-2003 Whitestown Source: Martin Scribner, Boone County Area Plan Commission (06/02/03).

2002 Source: Steve Lains, Builders Association of Greater Indianapolis (04/29/03).

2003-2008 Source: Steve Lains (Builders Ass. of Greater Indianapolis), MarketGraphics, Inc. (04/29/03).

NOTES:

1. There were 14,600 Boone County households in 2000 (http://www.stats.indiana.edu/web/county/households.html ).

2. 2000 Boone County population was 46,107 (http://www.stats.indiana.edu/population/PopTotals/historic_counts_counties.html ).

3. The average number of persons per Boone County household in 2000 was 3.158 (46,107 / 14,600).

The Boone County, Lebanon, Zionsville, and Whitestown population projections that result from using the Single Family Building Permit data are included in the table below.

Boone County Population Projections
(compiled August 18, 2003)

Location	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2010	2015	2020	2023	2025
Lebanon	14,222	14,059	14,231	14,475	14,719	14,963	15,207	15,451	15,695	16,183	17,403	18,623	19,355	19,843
Whitestown	471	544	543	885	1,227	1,569	1,911	2,253	2,595	3,279	3,993	4,043	4,073	4,093
Zionsville	8,775	9,767	10,062	10,350	10,638	10,926	11,214	11,502	11,790	12,366	13,806	15,246	16,110	16,686
all other	22,639	22,691	23,441	24,042	24,658	25,236	25,824	26,453	27,161	28,407	31,522	34,637	36,506	37,752
Total	46,107	47,061	48,277	49,752	51,242	52,694	54,156	55,659	57,241	60,235	66,724	72,549	76,044	78,374

Population data source 2000 through 2002 from selected Indiana Business Research Center (Indiana University - Kelley School of Business) STATS Indiana web pages:
1. http://www.stats.indiana.edu/profiles/pr18011.html for 2000 census populations.
2. http://www.stats.indiana.edu/population/sub_cnty_estimates/2002/place_estimates2002.html for 2001 and 2002 population estimates (as of July 1).

Boone County Single Family Building Permits data source 1990 through 2008 from the above table:
3. The average number of Single Family Building Permits issued in Lebanon from 1997 through 2002 was 77.
4. The average number of Single Family Building Permits issued in Zionsville from 1997 through 2001 was 91.
5. The average number of Single Family Building Permits issued in Whitestown from 1997-2002 was about 3.
6. The number of Single Family Building Permits issued for Walker Farms in Whitestown the first five months of 2003 was 45 (an annual rate of 108).
7. The average number of persons per Boone County household in 2000 was 3.158.

Population Projections for 2003 through 2023 use the following estimates:
8. The Lebanon Population Increase will be 244 each year = (77 Single Family Bldg Permits)(3.158 Persons Per Household).
9. The Zionsville Population Increase will be 288 each year = (91 Single Family Bldg Permits)(3.158 Persons Per Household).
10. The annual Whitestown Walker Farms Pop. Incr. will be 342 from 2003 through 2012 = (108 Single Family Building Permits)(3.158 Persons Per Household).
11. The annual Whitestown Population Increase will be 10 from 2013 through 2023 = (3 Single Family Building Permits)(3.158 Persons Per Household).
12. The "All Other" Population Increase will be 601 for 2003 = (190 Single Family Building Permits)(3.158 Persons Per Household).
13. The "All Other" Population Increase will be 616 for 2004 = (195 Single Family Building Permits)(3.158 Persons Per Household).
14. The "All Other" Population Increase will be 578 for 2005 = (183 Single Family Building Permits)(3.158 Persons Per Household).
15. The "All Other" Population Increase will be 588 for 2006 = (186 Single Family Building Permits)(3.158 Persons Per Household).
16. The "All Other" Population Increase will be 629 for 2007 = (199 Single Family Building Permits)(3.158 Persons Per Household).
17. The "All Other" Population Increase will be 708 for 2008 = (224 Single Family Building Permits)(3.158 Persons Per Household).
18. The annual "All Other" Population Increase will be 623 from 2009 through 2023 = (197 Single Family Building Permits)(3.158 Persons Per Household).

NOTE: The no. of in-county births assumed to offset the total no. of persons who die or move out of the cty.

Once again, the current July 2003 STATS population projections are somewhat less than those computed by Watchdog Lebanon using the Single Family Building Permit data. The differences are shown by the Boone County population comparison listed next.

Watchdog Lebanon vs. July 2003 STATS
2005: WL-52,694; STATS-52,192
2010: WL-60,235; STATS-56,319
2015: WL-66,724; STATS-59,243
2020: WL-72,549; STATS-61,564
2025: WL-78,374; STATS-63,401
2030: WL-?; STATS-64,754
2035: WL-?; STATS-65,667
2040: WL-?; STATS-66,217

Excluding annexation efforts, Lebanon's population is expected to grow 33% from 14,475 in 2003 to 19,355 in 2023. Because of the Walker Farms development, Whitestown's population is expected to grow 360% (from 885 to 4,073) the next twenty years. Zionsville's population (without annexation of existing housing developments) is expected to grow 55% from 10,350 to 16,110 during this same time period.

Projections of population growth need to be as accurate as possible. This enables elected and appointed officials to efficiently plan for future needs without the unnecessary expense of overbuilding. It is hoped anyone with information about Boone County's anticipated population growth will help fine-tune the Boone County Population Projections by sending an E-mail to taxless@watchdogindiana.org!

Watchdog Indiana Home Page Watchdog Lebanon Home Page

This page was last updated on 03/19/10.